Find the edge. Price the risk. Size the trade.

Odds, calibrated. Risk, in dollars. Size, by Kelly.

Desk Research
  1. 01

    Read the odds.

    Kalshi and Polymarket, calibrated.

  2. 02

    Check what you own.

    Your holdings, read-only.

  3. 03

    Size the trade.

    Half Kelly, capped.

In a Fed study, the odds called every Fed meeting the day before.

Diercks, Katz & Wright, FEDS 2026-010

They rarely beat stocks to the news.

Valentin, 2026

The edge is two prices that disagree.

Bürgi, Deng & Whelan; IMDEA, AFT 2025
This week

What the market expects this week

Read-only. You place every trade.

It sees positions, not your goals or taxes.

Its move estimates rest on a short history. Treat them as rough.

Check my portfolio →

Runs on your machine. Your keys stay with you.

Kalshi · ForecastEx · Limitless · Futuur · SnapTrade · Sonnet 5.5 · Jev · Scrapling